Probabilistic Economic Risk Assessment for NPP Risk Managment

To deal with the insurance issue, the Interagency Co-ordinating Council on risk estimation in the nuclear complex was established in 1997 under the Department of Safety, Environment arid Emergency Situations of Minatom of Russia (DSEES). Several teams including experts from key Russian research centres have been working on the development of risk assessment guidelines.

It is a task of the DSEES to create guideline document for evaluations of risks and economic losses for incidents at Russian nuclear enterprises. The guidelines will be mandatory during risk assessments for different purposes including nuclear insurance. They contain a description of the terms, the list of tasks and their correlation, methodology, procedure order, computer codes (if needed) and report requirements.

The experience of the Western organisations has been used to develop the guidelines. An earlier TACIS BISTRO project "Insurance risk assessment techniques concerning incidents at NPPs", BIS/99/250/045, was completed in 2001.

The present project had the objectives:

• to transfer procedures available from the Western party for evaluating the economic risks of nuclear power plants (NPPs) for insurance purposes to the Russian project partner and target groups,
• to study the possibility of application of these procedures to Russian NPPs and
• to develop techniques and procedures for economic risk evaluation for such plants.

It was agreed to extend the scope of the project to include presentation of the developed procedures to Minatom of Russia (Co-ordinating Council, DSEES) for approval. It will then be possible to include the procedures in the Risk Assessment Guidelines for Russian NPPs. Further, Minatom proposed to use the guidelines for Russian nuclear fuel cycle non-power enterprises, as well as for transport of nuclear materials.

Target groups for this project were:

1. Minatom (DSEES) and the organisations of Minatom of Russia;
2. Rosenergoatom Concern and the NPPs;
3. The companies forming the Russian Nuclear Insurance Pool.

The Project Applicant, the Russian Federation Ministry for Atomic Energy (DSEES of Minatom of Russia), is a federal body of executive power, which carries out the state management of the use of objects of nuclear power in accordance with the Federal Law on "Atomic Energy Use" and on the basis of the Rules about Minatom of Russia adopted by the Order of the government of the Russian Federation (the Order of the Government No 392 from April 5, 1997). The DSEES is the part of Minatom dealing with nuclear risk and insurance matters.

The Western party was Serco Assurance acting as contractor to the European Commission.

To achieve the objectives the following activities have been completed, in accordance with the plan agreed at the outset:

• Training was provided in Moscow by Professor J.H.Gittus to the Russian parties on assessing risks and insurable costs for Russian nuclear enterprises. This was based on methods currently in use in the UK. Professor Gittus also provided substantial supporting documentation.
• The Russian parties have developed a procedure for the assessment of insurance premiums for nuclear plant in Russia.
• A pilot study, using plant specific data from Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (LNPP) Unit 1, was performed to demonstrate and help develop the Russian procedure. The data needed were specified as part of the training. They were obtained by agreement with the owners and operators of the plant.

The Western party visited Moscow to discuss the developed procedure and results of the pilot assessment and to help prepare the final report.
The main outcomes of the project were:

• A procedure was developed for the assessment of insurance premiums for nuclear plant in Russia.
• Developing the Russian procedure has led to some suggestions for changes to legislation to facilitate the insurance of nuclear plant in Russia.

The results of the pilot study suggest the possibility of reducing the insurance premium for third party liability for LNPP Unit 1.

• The project also gives proposals for future activities towards the successful insurance of nuclear facilities in Russia.
• The results of this project were presented to the Minatom Interagency Co-ordinating Council on Risk Assessments in the Nuclear Sector, for its approval, on 1 July 2003.

This project has successfully fulfilled its objectives. An important reason for this is that the different Russian participating organisations, which have different interests, have worked together harmoniously and in full co-operation with the EC contractor, Serco Assurance. In particular the developed Russian procedure for calculating premiums and the results of the pilot study for LNPP Unit 1 were agreed by representatives both of the Russian insurers and insureds.